If something widely considered to be the first AGI is made by someone who can reasonably be described as a YES holder in the main LK-99 market, this resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
For example, having held YES at one point would not automatically qualify a person. If he would be more accurately described as a NO holder, this market would not resolve YES.
Related questions
"YES holder" as of market creation? Where "YES" really means "has credence higher than the market price", so somebody who puts it at 7% would be a YES holder regardless of their actual trades(which may be distorted by interest rates, etc.)
For example, if the market were to rise to 99% off of a new paper, even an optimist like you might become a NO holder just for risk management. And even a pessimist might buy the market up once the result is known to be YES. My definition would still count you and exclude them, but just looking at shares might not.
If somebody is an employee at an AGI lab that succeeds, do they automatically count? You might exclude the janitors, but besides research scientists and engineers there are also backend and frontend software developers, tools developers, people that manage the datacenter, people that raise funding, board members, investors, and kernel engineers. It may be easier to count anyone employed by such a company.
@Mira Yeah anyone who currently believes 5% or higher (and holds YES shares) qualifies. Of course, that's far from all-inclusive/exhaustive.
The person has to have played a leading role in the creation of the final product which is the AGI. For example, if OpenAI developed the AGI under Sam Altman's leadership, and Sam Altman is a YES holder, then the question would resolve YES. But if someone outside of OpenAI developed an AGI using GPT-5, the question would not resolve yes on the basis of Sam being a YES holder. Anyway I will get back to work now. In summary, I'll figure it out as I go along.
@jim it takes a lot of people to make agi happen. If OpenAI were to construct and AGI, would you believe that Sam Altman created AGI?
@AnilJason I will lean toward resolving YES in such cases. If the CEO or CTO of the company which creates the first AGI is revealed to be an LK-99 main-market YES holder I will likely resolve YES.