Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Which AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
28
Ṁ125Ṁ1.1k
Dec 31
96%
OpenAI
0.6%
Google
2%
Anthropic
0.4%
Harmonic
0.8%
Other

Resolves to the first lab to release a solution which is subsequently verified to a previously-unsolved Clay Institute Millennium Prize problem.

Market context
Technology
AI
OpenAI
Technical AI Timelines
AI Impacts
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

How does this market resolve when 2026 ends and no lab has solved any Millenium problems, as is basically guaranteed to happen?

People are also trading

AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
-4% 1d93% chance
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
-10% 1d25% chance
In what year will artificial intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?
2027
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
-9% 1d30% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2030?
95% chance
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
92% chance
Will an unsolved millenium prize problem be solved by AI by the end of 2028
+3% 1d97% chance
AI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
97% chance
Will *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
+5% 1d20% chance
Which AI lab's model will be the first to solve a Millennium Problem?