Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Which Epoch AI FrontierMath open problem will be solved next?
1
Ṁ125Ṁ80
Dec 31
26%
Hadamard Matrices
26%
Ramsey Numbers for Book Graphs
26%
Finiteness Problem for Diophantine Equations
13%
Problem marked "Solid result"
9%
Problem marked "Major advance" or "Breakthrough"

See all problems here:
https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems
"A Ramsey-style Problem on Hypergraphs" has already been marked as solved, this market is about which will be solved next.

Resolves according to which one is marked as solved first on the website. If multiple are marked at the same time the market resolves according to an even per-problem split of 100%. If a problem is completed by humans or deemed too easy post-completion and removed that does not constitute a YES resolution.

N/A if the layout changes enough to make resolution of this market impossible, or all the problems are removed from epoch's website and no alternative exists. If a newly added option not marked "Solid result", "Major advance" or "Breakthrough" is resolved first, I'll N/A. I will extend this market as needed.

Market context
Technology
AI
Math
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Which AI company first solves FrontierMath 85%?
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
32% chance
Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?
Will AI models solve at least 2 FrontierMath Open Problems before 2027?
83% chance
When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%)
Will an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
45% chance
How many FrontierMath Open Problems solved in 2026?
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
39% chance
Which AI lab will be the first to solve a millennium prize problem?
Highest Epoch-acknowledged FrontierMath score at EOY2026?
71.3