Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for OpenAI credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-12-31.
Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing. Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-12-31 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
Sources. Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ). Post-IPO market cap is public daily via standard market data. A single credible report is sufficient to resolve a threshold YES if not contradicted. Analyst estimates do not trigger resolution.
See also:
/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-hZtdnzp2O2 (this market)
/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of
/Bayesian/openai-highest-valuation-by-end-of-2lnAgSs6st
/Bayesian/anthropic-highest-valuation-by-end-NdEUcRyhds
1,000