Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Manifold Markets announces a funding round (Series A or later) with a post-money valuation exceeding $20 million. Resolution requires official announcement from Manifold or verified reporting by major tech news outlets (TechCrunch, Crunchbase, PitchBook, etc.). The funding round must close for the valuation to count.

The market resolves NO if Manifold Markets announced a funding round with a post-money valuation less than $20 million.

The market resolves N/A if no funding announcement is made by Dec 31st 2026.

Background

Manifold Markets was founded in 2021 by James Grugett and Stephen Grugett and is based in Austin. The platform enables users to create and trade on prediction markets using play money. The company has received $1.5 million in funding from the FTX Future Fund, and over $340,000 from the Survival and Flourishing Fund. Its top competitors include companies like Kalshi, Probo and Polymarket.