Valid argument for high p(doom) in @EliezerYudkowsky's upcoming book "If Anyone Builds, Everyone Dies"?
4
100Ṁ63Dec 31
34%
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If the conclusion follows from the premises presented in the book, and this fact is well-indicated by the arguments in the book this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
Resolution will be based on the objective judgement of @jim
Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about their personal views, the creator has stated that they do not believe Eliezer Yudkowsky has ever articulated a valid argument for high p(doom) in the past. This provides context for the creator's starting position before reading the book.
Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the term "objective judgement" used in the resolution criteria is tongue-in-cheek.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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