Thinking Machines releases an LLM by EOY 2025?
15
100Ṁ277Dec 31
33%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background
Thinking Machines Lab is a new AI company whose CEO is Mira Murati (former CTO of OpenAI).
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if Thinking Machines releases to the public an LLM (through an API, through a web interface, or by releasing the model weights) by EOY.
Resolves NO if Thinking Machines does not release an LLM this year.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
32% chance
Will a Generative AI (LLM) startup IPO before EOY 2025?
37% chance
LLMs by EOY 2025: Will Retentive Learning Surpass Transformers? (Subsidised 400 M$)
10% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
51% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
70% chance
What will Manifolders mostly use LLMs for, by EOY 2025?
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
26% chance