🏅 Top traders

@jim Would you consider a weekly "is trump dead" market? New market weekly (1k liquidity) and resolves NO the first time trump is seen in public that week. If he is not seen that week, the market will close. If he is seen the next week, it resolves NO, otherwise if his Wikipedia page lists a death date in the week of the market and you are confident this is not part of an edit war resolves YES.

Frustrating for Progressives what should be true is not reality. For normal people fortunately reality is not Progressive what should be true.

For Progressives words create reality. For normal people reality created words.

@WilliamBarr People also randomly thought Biden and the Queen were dead when they didn't appear for 48 hours, it's bipartisan stupidity. Major world leaders' deaths are not kept secret for days, people just love conspiracy theories.

@Joshua wasn't keeping major leader deaths secret for days the norm in Soviet Russia?

@AlexanderTheGreater We do not live in soviet russia! There is much alpha in betting against vast nefarious conspiracies in modern western societies where everything juicy leaks quickly. These guys added the editor of the atlantic to their war plans chat, remember? They cannot anything close to this scale a secret.

@Joshua I agree on Trump. For the reasons you give. But not all "major world leaders". I'd not be surprised if we wouldn't learn for a day or two if Putin or Xi died.

https://komonews.com/news/nation-world/is-trump-dead-bizarre-rumors-debunked-after-president-seen-outside-white-house-social-media-truth-social-golf-golfing-make-america-great-again-hat-hoax-death-threat-deadly-minneapolis-shooting-robin-westman

@jim Resolve NO

@realDonaldTrump wow, that URL...!

...Arbitrage?

@Joshua Anyone?

@Joshua nice

imagine he's actually dead tho

@Joshua Screw it. I'll bite.

@Joshua Why are you doing this? You stand to win almost nothing while the chance is almost certainly >1% (based off the idea that you are pushing the market out of calibration with your whale activities) so your expected value if your whole limit order is filled is immensely negative?
Then again, I know very little about markets with extremely one-sided probabilities.

@MaxE It was staggering how unhelpful Google was to help me answer this earlier today.

This was an interesting microcosm that worries me about if somebody wanted to launch a blitz disinformation campaign in the future.

@MaxE The odds were not even close to over 1%

@Joshua If you werent in the market it would be at >1% though

@MaxE Let me just do the math and see. It is unusual for trump to go without public appearances for so long and he is certainly less healthy than his media team lets the public know.
Presidents have a ~.01% chance of death each day on average, and I would put trump's chances as higher than average. Trump would have had since his last appearance on the 27th to die, which is 4 days. I think .08% is a fair chance accounting for the 4 days x .01% per day x trump being less healthy (and more assassinatable imo) than the average president.
Bayes theorem for P(dead|meme) = P(meme|dead)*P(dead)/P(meme)
P(dead) is the aforementioned .08% plus something to account for the recent suspicious evidence such as his swellings, bruises, his and vances mentions of heaven and death, and his disappearance. It's much more likely that he is having medical problems but not dead, but it should raise the chance by at least some. P(dead|sus) = .8192*.0004/.1024= .32%. I put the P(sus) at only 10% because it seems like they would do a lot to hide any visible decline.
P(meme|dead) should be pretty likely since people are clearly trying very hard to find any evidence that he is dead. I will put it at 81.92%.
P(meme) is hard. People have been making memes about doing it for a while now, so its not surprising to see something similar. The chance for it to happen seems narrowly closer to 40.96% than 81.92%, but I am certainly biased when trying to make numbers that determine the truthfulness of my beliefs.

.0032*.8192/.4096=.0064=.64%
This was base 2 fermi estimation so the number should be within a factor of 2 of the true probability. Its not conclusive sadly, but it does show that my original intuition of ~2.5% was off.

this is donald trump yes?

@realDonaldTrump and what means he is dead?

updated

@jim confirmed by hospital, death certificate?

@realDonaldTrump confirmed by credible reporting / consensus

I won't give a precise criterion, but

jim promises to do a good-faith truth-seeking resolution