How low can @jim push the S&P 500? (2025)
25
1.3kṀ18kDec 30
82%
4900
65%
4800
48%
4700
36%
4600
33%
4500
27%
4400
21%
4300
20%
4200
14%
4100
12%
4000
Resolved
YES5900
Resolved
YES5800
Resolved
YES5700
Resolved
YES5600
Resolved
YES5500
Resolved
YES5400
Resolved
YES5300
Resolved
YES5200
Resolved
YES5100
Resolved
YES5000
If S&P trades below a number at any point in 2025 that number resolves YES
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People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
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