Are we in an AI stock-market bubble?
16
Oct 1
yes
no
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as in a stock market bubble like the dot com bubble

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all jim polls: "Is P(x)?"

me: for all x in X, or for some x in X?

jim: yes

I think eventually we will be but not yet (i.e. the median competently managed infrastructure investment ongoing today will bear a return that beats cost of capital, but we might soon reach a point where that is no longer true).

this is a pretty good take imo. i would swap median for average; i think it's ok for the median investments to fail as long as the average doesn't. this is often the case; obviously it is for most regular industries, but also for growing industries like this one

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