Will we find evidence that we are living in a simulation? I will resolve this market if we find strong evidence in the future that we are living in a simulation. If its not obvious in 2060 I will either do a rough literature search, or pay someone else to do it (at least 5-10 hours) and then resolve the market with the probability that reflects my best estimate. I will not trade in this market. I will be 59 by then, so likely still alive in most future branches that matter. If I die, this market will resolve ambigous.

Dec 17, 8:26pm: Is the simulation hypothesis true? → Do we live in a simulation?