Resolution Details: This question resolves YES if the United States federal government officially implements new tariffs specifically targeting semiconductors imported from Taiwan, with an effective date on or before December 31, 2025.
Resolution Criteria:
The tariffs must be formally announced through official US government channels (e.g., Federal Register, US Trade Representative, Department of Commerce)
The measures must explicitly include semiconductors imported from Taiwan
The implementation date must be set for no later than December 31, 2025
Temporary suspensions of existing trade agreements do not count as new tariffs
The tariffs must be broad measures affecting the semiconductor industry, not targeted actions against specific companies (e.g., TSMC)
Resolves NO if:
No such tariffs are announced by December 31, 2025
Announced tariffs are scheduled to take effect after December 31, 2025
Proposed tariffs are withdrawn before implementation
Measures are limited to non-tariff trade barriers
Actions only affect other categories of goods from Taiwan
Tariffs are announced but legally challenged and blocked from implementation
1,000
3.00@JonasVollmer Added fine prints since that's quite a bit of liquidity, and there are now 15 traders. Initially fired off the market quickly following the news.
There is an "AND" in the question that's been traded on so far, which, if read in the literal sense, would require both sectors to be targeted. Happy to change to an "OR" if that's more aligned with the question people wish they were predicting.
@jgyou I'd be especially interested in the version of the question that only includes semiconductors. As a NO holder who would be disadvantaged by this change, I would be happy for you to make that edit
@JonasVollmer OK -- editing since you are the biggest liquidity provider.
I'll reimburse anyone who exits their position due to the edits in the next 24 hours; just dm me!
Since the market technically got less specific, NO holders could be hurt a bit.
This is why the market crashed. It's because of insider trading, people with advance knowledge of the Taiwan tariffs took out large short positions. Investors and the media saw this and thought deepseek was the cause. Then that became the narrative.