Resolution Details: This question resolves YES if the United States federal government officially implements new tariffs targeting semiconductors imported from Taiwan, with an effective date on or before December 31, 2025.

Resolution Criteria:

• The tariffs must be formally announced through official US government channels (e.g., Federal Register, US Trade Representative, Department of Commerce)

• The measures must explicitly include semiconductors imported from Taiwan

  • Clarification 3/4/2025: Tariffs on the whole Taiwanese economy that include semiconducts include the above.

• The implementation date must be set for no later than December 31, 2025

• Temporary suspensions of existing trade agreements do not count as new tariffs

• The tariffs must be broad measures affecting the semiconductor industry, not targeted actions against specific companies (e.g., TSMC)

• Resolves YES if a general tariff on Taiwanese imports is applied and it includes semiconductors.

Resolves NO if:

• No such tariffs are announced by December 31, 2025

• Announced tariffs are scheduled to take effect after December 31, 2025

• Proposed tariffs are withdrawn before implementation

• Measures are limited to non-tariff trade barriers

• Actions only affect other categories of goods from Taiwan

• Tariffs are announced but legally challenged and blocked from implementation