What will be the highest effective US tariff rate on China by EOY 2025?
15
200Ṁ1234Dec 31
1%
104% (No higher than question creation)
3%
105%-125%
78%
125%-150%
6%
150%-200%
3%
200%-300%
3%
300%-1000%
3%
1000%-9000%
3%
Over 9000% OR Embargo/War
This resolves to the bin that contains the highest effective tariff rate on goods coming from China. This tariff rate considered for this market will be the general rate on all goods, not specific goods (currently 104%). If the final top rate is exactly at the intersection of one bucket and another one, the higher bucket will be chosen. I reserve the right to resolve edge cases.
Update 2025-04-27 (PST): - Highest effective tariff rate refers to the maximum rate reached at any point between now and the end of 2025. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be >20% semiconductor-specific tariffs lasting over a month by the end of 2025?
40% chance
How high will the US tariff rate get in 2025?
Tariffs on China by EOY?
41.6
US tariff rate on Chinese goods at end of 2025?
39.3
US effective tariff rate in Q4 2025?
12.8
Will US tariffs be higher in 2025 than 2024?
99% chance
US tariffs on foreign films by EOY2025?
31% chance
What will average US tariffs be at the start of 2026?
11.5
US tariffs on Chinese imports on January 1, 2026?
Will Trump's import tariffs on Canada and Mexico be in effect and at least at 25% by EOY?
46% chance