Resolves to yes if Apple receives a complete exemption from the imported goods tariff on China or is required to pay only 10% or less by April 30. If both the U.S. tariff on Chinese imports decreases to 20% AND no exemption to Apple is made by April 30, this market resolves to N/A.

• Update 2025-04-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Exemption Criteria Clarification:

  • Apple does not need to be explicitly mentioned by name as long as it is, in practice, either completely exempt or subject to 10% or less tariff.

  • If there is any ambiguity regarding whether these conditions have been met, the market will resolve once a definitive answer is reached.

• Update 2025-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:

  • The calculation now uses the cost Apple pays to import rather than sales revenue.

  • New formula: (sum [cost of unexempt imports from China_i * tariff_i]) > (10% * cost of all products imported from China).

  • This calculation will reference the data from the last fiscal year ended in 2024.

• Update 2025-04-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): New Calculation Basis:

  • Resolution criteria will now be based on the cost Apple pays to import goods rather than on sales revenue.

  • Calculations will use cost data from the last fiscal year ended in 2024.

• Update 2025-04-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Imputed Percentages and Methodology Disclosure

  • The percentages used for determining the weighted tariff calculation will be imputed based on established estimates of goods made in respective countries.

  • The creator will provide a detailed explanation of the methodology prior to finalizing the resolution for review.

  • If there is significant dispute over the methodology or the final percentage falls within a margin of error away from the 10% criteria, the market will resolve to N/A.

• Update 2025-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The calculation for the 10% threshold considers different types of tariffs and how exemptions apply:

  • Exemptions on electronic goods are considered to apply only to reciprocal tariffs (EO 14257).

  • Exemptions are not considered to apply to the 20% fentanyl tariff (EO 14195).

  • The threshold requires the weighted average tariff to be 10% or less across all Apple imports from China, considering the application of exemptions as described above.