From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2025, the US Congress has passed a bill which implements a 10% or greater across-the-board tariff on nearly all imports from all countries (or other across-the-board fee on imports, see the fine print for details). The tariff will still be considered to be across-the-board if it excludes 10 or fewer UN member states.