Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?
Will the US Congress pass a bill implementing Trump's tariff policies in 2025?
18
10kṀ16k2026
13%
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From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2025, the US Congress has passed a bill which implements a 10% or greater across-the-board tariff on nearly all imports from all countries (or other across-the-board fee on imports, see the fine print for details). The tariff will still be considered to be across-the-board if it excludes 10 or fewer UN member states.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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