jfjurchen avatar
J. F. Jurchen
closes Jan 1, 2024
Conditional on China invading Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases and the U.S. NOT intervening militarily, does the Chinese invasion succeed?
72%
chance

Based on Noah Smith's writing at https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-i-think-an-invasion-of-taiwan?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=35345&post_id=80290500&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email.

Closes YES if China invades Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases, and the U.S. does not intervene militarily, and the invasion succeeds. Closes NO if China invades without a preemptive attack and the U.S. does not intevene and the invasion fails. Closes N/A if China invades Taiwan and preemptively attacks U.S. bases, or if China invades and the U.S. intervenes, or if China does not invade Taiwan before the market closes. The market close time will be extended indefinitely if there is an invasion.

I define a "successful" invasion as one where hositilities cease (either due to a formal treaty or at least one month without fighting) and the PRC is in possession of the entire island of Taiwan. A "failed" invasion is one where hostilities cease without the PRC being in possession of the entire island.

"Intervene militarily" is defined the same way as on https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/conditional-on-china-invading-taiwa-a329773ced2d - this market will close YES/NO if and only if that market resolves NO, otherwise it will resolve N/A.

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Manifold in the WildBot

Conditional on China invading Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases and the U.S. NOT intervening militarily, does the Chinese invasion succeed?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition