Based on Noah Smith's writing at https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-i-think-an-invasion-of-taiwan?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=35345&post_id=80290500&isFreemail=false&utm_medium=email.
Closes YES if China invades Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases, and the U.S. intervenes militarily, and the invasion succeeds. Closes NO if China invades without a preemptive attack and the U.S. intevenes and the invasion fails. Closes N/A if China invades Taiwan and preemptively attacks U.S. bases, or if China invades and the U.S. does not intervene, or if China does not invade Taiwan before the market closes. The market close time will be extended indefinitely if there is an invasion.
I define a "successful" invasion as one where hositilities cease (either due to a formal treaty or at least one month without fighting) and the PRC is in possession of the entire island of Taiwan. A "failed" invasion is one where hostilities cease without the PRC being in possession of the entire island.
"Intervene militarily" is defined the same way as on https://manifold.markets/jfjurchen/conditional-on-china-invading-taiwa-a329773ced2d - this market will close YES/NO if and only if that market resolves YES, otherwise it will resolve N/A. I will not bet on this market either.
Related questions
@MusterTheSquirrels Insurgents wouldn't qualify as a failed invasion, but something like Cyprus (island divided between two centralized governments with no ongoing hostilities) would.
Note that hostilities can last arbitrarily long without the invasion being considered a failure - this market will only resolve when hostilities cease.
