Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Raúl Castro, born June 3, 1931, dies before January 1, 2027. Resolution will be confirmed through major news outlets reporting his death. The market resolves NO if he remains alive through December 31, 2026.

Background

Raúl Castro served as President of Cuba between 2008 and 2018 and announced his retirement at the Eighth Congress of the Communist Party of Cuba in April 2021. The retired general is 94 years old as of October 2025. Castro has made few public appearances in recent years, fueling speculation about his health, though there has been no confirmed report of his passing. He presided over a session of the National Defense Council at the Ministry of Revolutionary Armed Forces in October 2025, indicating continued public activity despite his advanced age.

Considerations

In September 2025, an unverified Facebook profile falsely claimed Castro had been hospitalized, but verification platforms debunked the claim as part of a disinformation campaign. Death rumors have circulated on social media, but no credible evidence supports imminent health crises.