Background

As of early 2024, over 1,200 people have been charged in connection with the January 6th Capitol attack. Trump has publicly stated he would pardon many January 6th defendants if re-elected,

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the percentage of individuals convicted of January 6th-related charges who receive presidential pardons by January 6, 2026. The percentage will be calculated as:

(Number of convicted J6 defendants pardoned) / (Total number of J6 defendants convicted) × 100

For resolution purposes:

• Only federal convictions related to January 6th events count.

• Commutations do not count as pardons.

• If a conviction is overturned on appeal before January 6, 2026, it will not be included in the denominator.

• Resolution will be my best effort at an accurate accounting based on official Department of Justice records, White House announcements, and news reports. I will not bet in this market myself.

Considerations

• The distinction between violent and nonviolent offenses may affect pardon decisions

• The total number of convictions may continue to increase as pending cases are resolved

• Historical presidential pardons for politically charged events are rare, making this situation relatively unprecedented