Recently in an interview Trump stated again that he will “absolutely” pardon those convicted from events that took place at the Capitol on Jan 6th.
In the three years since the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, federal prosecutors have charged more than 1,265 defendants across nearly all 50 states and D.C. and secured sentences of incarceration for more than 460 people, according to newly released numbers from the U.S. Attorney's Office in D.C.
Department prosecutors have secured more than 718 guilty pleas -- including 213 who pleaded to felonies that include assaults on federal officers, obstructing law enforcement and seditious conspiracy.
Also, 171 others have been found guilty at trial or otherwise convicted, the D.C. U.S. Attorney Office said.
Rules:
If Trump pardons anyone who has been convicted of: assaults on federal officers, obstructing law enforcement, or seditious conspiracy, due to their involvement in the events at the US Capitol on Jan 6th 2021, before 2028, then this will resolve YES.
If Trump is not elected in the 2024 Presidential election, or Trump is elected but pardons nobody fitting the description of “YES” above, then this will resolve NO.
This will NOT N/A
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I guess the early “No” resolution technically is conditional on Trump losing. I think he just means he’s glad it won’t N/A if Trump loses, or go on forever for another future Trump campaign lol
No need to explain the obvious to me, I'm just here to criticize an incorrect statement. There's nothing wrong with conditional markets.
What you described isn't a condition, it's a resolution criterion. By your logic every market is conditional. While in a literal sense every market is literally conditional on an event happening or not happening to resolve either yes or no, the word "conditional" in "conditional market" refers to conditions that the market will no longer resolve (aka, N/A)