On Jan 19th, Biden pardoned 5 people. Several of the profiles mention non-violent drug crimes, but don't specify marijuana. I'll take a look at the table of all pardons once these have been added there, but otherwise won't be researching it further.

@Marnix, as creator for that prop bet, if you want to dig any deeper and supply a count of which pardons meet the criteria, please do. Otherwise, it appears the count is still at 1 (Gary Michael Robinson, Dec 12th).

@DanHomerick I'll check, but won't be available until after the inauguration — though I have doubts it'll resolve yes, at this point.

On Jan 17, Biden commuted sentences for 2490 people. No pardons, though.

@Marnix IMO, this is overpriced. In his Dec 12th batch, there were a number of drug-related pardons, but only one that specifically mentioned marijuana (please correct me if I'm wrong!)

I think it's likely YES, but at maybe 5:1 or 8:1 odds, not the nearly 20:1 that it's been trading at.

@DanHomerick I saw a news story last night suggesting he'd pardon more drug-related offenses at some point soon

@Marnix I expect those will mostly be commutations of sentences. We'll see, though!

I'll be leaning on this to resolve:

https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present

It hasn't been updated for the latest batch yet, though.

@DanHomerick page has december 12 pardons now.

By my count, there was one marijuana pardon (Gary Michael Robinson), but the rest of the drug related ones were cocaine, meth, or heroin.

None of the markets for a specific individual matched, that I saw.

There won't be any NO resolutions until after Biden has left the presidency, of course.

@traders A

similar marker can be found here

@traders A related market can be found here:

As asked by The Intercept https://theintercept.com/2024/11/27/biden-trump-commutations-death-row-executions

@Marnix the article doesn't have much connection to this market. There people are seeking commutation of their death sentences, whereas this market is only for pardons.

@DanHomerick ah, right, had a moment of forgetting commutations exist

Any pardons granted from now until Trump takes office will be part of this market.

I find it amusing that "Donald Trump" and "the guy who tried to assassinate Donald Trump" are equally likely to be pardoned.

@DanHomerick Just opened a large NO position because this is silly