An outbound president traditionally grants pardons during their lame duck period, after the election but before they leave office.
Who will Joe Biden pardon during this period?
This market will be limited to an actual pardon, and exclude other forms of clemency such as commutation of a sentence.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST): This market will be resolved using the official Department of Justice pardons list available at: https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,100 | |
| 2 | Ṁ590 | |
| 3 | Ṁ586 | |
| 4 | Ṁ471 | |
| 5 | Ṁ449 |
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On Jan 19th, Biden pardoned 5 people. Several of the profiles mention non-violent drug crimes, but don't specify marijuana. I'll take a look at the table of all pardons once these have been added there, but otherwise won't be researching it further.
@Marnix, as creator for that prop bet, if you want to dig any deeper and supply a count of which pardons meet the criteria, please do. Otherwise, it appears the count is still at 1 (Gary Michael Robinson, Dec 12th).
@DanHomerick I'll check, but won't be available until after the inauguration — though I have doubts it'll resolve yes, at this point.
@Marnix IMO, this is overpriced. In his Dec 12th batch, there were a number of drug-related pardons, but only one that specifically mentioned marijuana (please correct me if I'm wrong!)
I think it's likely YES, but at maybe 5:1 or 8:1 odds, not the nearly 20:1 that it's been trading at.
@DanHomerick I saw a news story last night suggesting he'd pardon more drug-related offenses at some point soon
I'll be leaning on this to resolve:
https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present
It hasn't been updated for the latest batch yet, though.
@DanHomerick page has december 12 pardons now.
By my count, there was one marijuana pardon (Gary Michael Robinson), but the rest of the drug related ones were cocaine, meth, or heroin.
None of the markets for a specific individual matched, that I saw.
There won't be any NO resolutions until after Biden has left the presidency, of course.
As asked by The Intercept https://theintercept.com/2024/11/27/biden-trump-commutations-death-row-executions
@Marnix the article doesn't have much connection to this market. There people are seeking commutation of their death sentences, whereas this market is only for pardons.