I just saw that @datachef was banned. What happened?

https://www.justice.gov/pardon/file/898541/dl

Here are the DoJ pardon/clemency rules. You will notice that there is a FIVE YEAR waiting period which can be waived, but the process still takes at least weeks, probably months. Once again I will say Trump's personal lawyer cannot do this, it must be done by the White House Counsel. "First day" probably means March.

@datachef double post -- see below

@datachef just FYI:

A pardon is an executive order granting clemency for a conviction. It may be granted "at any time" after the commission of the crime.[14] As per Justice Department regulations, convicted persons may only apply five or more years after their sentence has been completed.[5] However, the president's power to pardon is not restricted by any temporal constraints except that the crime must have been committed.

(from: Wikipedia)

I could be mistaken here, but it feels like you are forecasting on something different to the question title and criteria? Something along the lines of: Will someone pardoned by Trump have their civil liberties restored before February 2025?

@datachef it doesn’t inspire confidence in a fair resolution that you did not list clear resolution criteria, have a large stake in NO and apparently have already decided how this would resolve. Under what conditions could you resolve this YES?

@NicoDelon WTF are you talking about?? Where did I decide??? Signed pardon resolves yes.

@datachef You’ve already posted four comments indicating you think a pardon in January is practically impossible. Maybe I’m misreading you.

@NicoDelon I am sharing my opinion. I do think it would be unprecedented to pardon someone that quickly. And if they are gonna do it on case by case basis it would make sense for them to actually spend time reviewing the cases. But I am not going to dishonorably resolve this market, which is what I thought you were implying.

@datachef you done this with the "Will Israel annex any part of Gaza by the end of 2025?" question too. You had a large Yes position with no criteria. About 3-4 users asked you for criteria which you blatantly ignored. Then you grudgingly added criteria which defined annexation as the construction of Israeli buildings in Gaza, rather than the completion of the actual (correct) formal annexation process that most users would have thought and that Israel has done before.

In this case it appears as though you were developing the same sort of scheme where you were gonna add some caveat to say that the pardon hadn't actually gone though whilst holding a large no position. It seems off you think a January pardon is "not possible", but even a quick google contradicts this.

Until he has a functioning White House Counsel to do the paperwork it is not possible. This isn't something his personal lawyer can do, there is a process and it takes weeks or months. The actual thing he signs is the last step of dozens. Has he even chosen a White House Counsel yet?

@datachef It is important to note that the White House Counsel IS NOT Trump's lawyer, they are the lawyer to the Office of the President. The thing, not the person. So Trump literally CANNOT prepare a pardon for anyone prior to taking office, unless he gets the current White House Counsel to help him and that seem extremely unlikely.

@datachef is he even promising to do this currently??