Will Ross Ulbricht be pardoned or have his sentence commuted to time served before March 2025?

168

Ṁ1kṀ170k

resolved Jan 22

Resolved

YES

ALL

If Ross' sentence is commuted to time served or he is fully pardoned before March 1st 2025, this market resolves YES. This is regardless of who commutes his sentence or pardons him.

Otherwise, this market resolves NO.

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@mods looks like this can be resolved

Well sh*t on my f*ck

Resolve

bought Ṁ5,000 YES

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

@Manifold

Bought Yes based on rumors through backchannels.

sold Ṁ942 YES

@rictic I like it at 80%. 92% seemed too high, given my general difficulty of predicting Trump.

bought Ṁ3,750 YES

Panic buying NO for seemingly no reason...

bought 𝕊10.00 NO

What are the odds Trump commutes the sentence to a couple more years and this resolves no

Arguments for YES: the tweet

Arguments for NO: Trump says a lot of stuff, much of which never happens. Also, markets like this tend to be skewed YES by people who think he should be released.