Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2024?
8
190Ṁ391resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
When integrated with tools such as formal proof verifiers, internet search, and symbolic math packages, I expect, say, 2026-level AI, when used properly, will be a trustworthy co-author in mathematical research, and in many other fields as well.
except for 2024
Resolves YES if a real professional mathematician claims this happened for them, unless consensus of other experts is that it didn't happen
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ28 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ8 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will AI be capable of producing an Annals-quality math paper for $100k by March 2030?
46% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
89% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
33% chance
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
26% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
79% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
37% chance
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
76% chance
How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?
Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?
30% chance
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
68% chance