If aliens are "confirmed" by the US in 2026, which kind of aliens will they be?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ125Ṁ66

Dec 31

16%

UFOs (sightings, disclosures)

35%

Microbial life (spectroscopic or mineral signatures of life in the solar system or beyond)

Alien technology (extrasolar objects, piece of space junk found on Earth, ancient alien relics)

SETI (radio signals received from afar)

33%

Completely unspecified (US government confidently asserts aliens exist but provide no further information)

Resolves to an option IF EITHER the Kalshi or Polymarket question on U.S. confirmation of aliens resolves YES in 2026.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxaliens/aliens/kxaliens-27

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027

NOTE: neither of these markets requires aliens to actually exist. They just require a cabinet member or federal agency to definitively state that aliens exist.

If both resolve NO, then this resolves to N/A.

If EITHER resolves YES, then this resolves to the closest option among the five provided options. No other categories will be added.

If MULTIPLE types of aliens are confirmed by the U.S. simultaneously, then this resolves equally to those types. I will resolve as soon as Kalshi/Polymarket resolves YES, and will not wait the rest of the year to see if more aliens are "confirmed" by the U.S.

I reserve the right to a PROB resolution in cases where there's serious gray area.

I will not bet in this market.

Market context

UFO

Aliens

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Why aren't there options like, "Living breathing anthropic aliens?" "Gray aliens like from science fiction except they are science fact?" "Silicon-based or other unexpected chemically divergent life?" &c.? This could be such a fun market