Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025?
22
192
αΉ1.4KαΉ300
2026
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background: Russia says it is planning to withdraw from the International Space Station after 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/world/russia-quit-iss-scn/index.html
Resolves YES if there are 1 or fewer Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew on December 31 2025.
See https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/index.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_International_Space_Station_expeditions for information on the ISS crew.
Jul 28, 6:38pm: Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-international-space-statio
Get αΉ200 play money
Sort by:
> Russia tells NASA space station pullout less imminent than indicated earlier
> Russian space officials have informed U.S. counterparts that Moscow would like to keep flying its cosmonauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) until their own orbital outpost is built and operational, a senior NASA official told Reuters on Wednesday.
I had interpreted "after 2024" as "eventually, sometime after 2024, not right away", and looks like that's what Russia meant as well.
More related questions
Related questions
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
31% chance
Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2030?
63% chance
Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?
58% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?
51% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2055?
66% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2026?
25% chance
Will we set a new record for number of people in space by mid 2025?
41% chance
Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?
30% chance
Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?
34% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2028?
76% chance