Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025? | Manifold

Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025?

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Background: Russia says it is planning to withdraw from the International Space Station after 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/world/russia-quit-iss-scn/index.html

Resolves YES if there are 1 or fewer Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew on December 31 2025.

See https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/index.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_International_Space_Station_expeditions for information on the ISS crew.

Jul 28, 6:38pm: Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-international-space-statio

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Update: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-nasa-sticking-with-space-station-until-least-2028-2022-07-27/

predicts NO

> Russia tells NASA space station pullout less imminent than indicated earlier > Russian space officials have informed U.S. counterparts that Moscow would like to keep flying its cosmonauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) until their own orbital outpost is built and operational, a senior NASA official told Reuters on Wednesday. I had interpreted "after 2024" as "eventually, sometime after 2024, not right away", and looks like that's what Russia meant as well.

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