Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025?
23
1kṀ15122026
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background: Russia says it is planning to withdraw from the International Space Station after 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/world/russia-quit-iss-scn/index.html
Resolves YES if there are 1 or fewer Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew on December 31 2025.
See https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/index.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_International_Space_Station_expeditions for information on the ISS crew.
Jul 28, 6:38pm: Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-international-space-statio
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
> Russia tells NASA space station pullout less imminent than indicated earlier
> Russian space officials have informed U.S. counterparts that Moscow would like to keep flying its cosmonauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) until their own orbital outpost is built and operational, a senior NASA official told Reuters on Wednesday.
I had interpreted "after 2024" as "eventually, sometime after 2024, not right away", and looks like that's what Russia meant as well.
Related questions
Related questions
Will astronauts Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore return to Earth before the end of February 2025?
2% chance
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027?
79% chance
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2028?
79% chance
Will the International Space Station be functional and crewed in 2025?
94% chance
Will the International Space Station be decommissioned by the end of 2025?
4% chance
How many people will be in space at the start of 2026?
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2026?
93% chance
Will India launch astronauts into orbit before the end of December 31, 2026?
52% chance
Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will an American visit the Chinese space station by the end of 2025?
3% chance