Will there be fewer than 2 Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew in December 2025?
31
Ṁ1kṀ5.9kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background: Russia says it is planning to withdraw from the International Space Station after 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/world/russia-quit-iss-scn/index.html
Resolves YES if there are 1 or fewer Russian cosmonauts in the International Space Station crew on December 31 2025.
See https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/expeditions/index.html or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_International_Space_Station_expeditions for information on the ISS crew.
Jul 28, 6:38pm: Related: https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-international-space-statio
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ227 | |
| 2 | Ṁ188 | |
| 3 | Ṁ175 | |
| 4 | Ṁ54 | |
| 5 | Ṁ45 |
Sort by:
> Russia tells NASA space station pullout less imminent than indicated earlier
> Russian space officials have informed U.S. counterparts that Moscow would like to keep flying its cosmonauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) until their own orbital outpost is built and operational, a senior NASA official told Reuters on Wednesday.
I had interpreted "after 2024" as "eventually, sometime after 2024, not right away", and looks like that's what Russia meant as well.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be 25 or more people in space orbiting earth at the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will Starlab Space Station be crewed before the end of 2030?
31% chance
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027?
95% chance
How many people will be in space at the start of 2027?
12.7
Will there be zero people in space for any period of time before 2040?
28% chance
How many people will be in space on 1 January 2030?
18
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2028?
80% chance
When will the next space station have a human in it?
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2029?
79% chance
Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2030?
68% chance