Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027?
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2027?
17
1kṀ1272
2026
83%
chance

This market will resolve if any of the following are true:

- If this market reaches its close date

- If `8G8D07CxdVzqkPLBcY3L` closes (Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2026?).

It will resolve based on the following decision tree:

- If the human operator agrees:

--- Resolves to round(MKT).

- Otherwise, a manually provided value

Note that the bot operator reserves the right to resolve contrary to the purely automated rules to preserve the spirit of the market. All resolutions are first verified by the human operator.

The operator also reserves the right to trade on this market unless otherwise specified. Even if otherwise specified, the operator reserves the right to buy shares for subsidy or to trade for the purposes of cashing out liquidity.

Science
Space
ISS
Olivia
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
2y

To clarify, I will only resolve off the older markets if the station is closed

2y

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules