Resolves YES if the Wisconsin legislature impeaches and removes Janet Protasiewicz from the Wisconsin Supreme Court in 2023. Otherwise NO.
Impeachment requires a majority vote in the Assembly and removal requires a 2/3 supermajority vote in the state Senate, both of which the Republican party has following the victory of the Republican candidate Knodl in a Senate race this week.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/wisconsin-gop-try-oust-new-liberal-state-supreme-court-justice-rcna78318 "A liberal just won the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Republicans are already talking about impeaching her."
A GOP win in the state Senate's 8th District gave the party a supermajority — with the power to pursue impeachment of newly elected liberal Janet Protasiewicz.
“If there are some that are out there that are corrupt, that are failing at their tasks, then we have the opportunity to hold them accountable … up to impeachment,” Knodl said. “Janet Protasiewicz is a Circuit Court judge right now in Milwaukee, and she has failed,” he continued. Asked whether he “would support impeaching her,” Knodl replied, “I certainly would consider it.”
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Kinda hilarious this is trading higher than the mere impeachment version right now ( https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-wisconsin-assembly-vote-to ). I mean, it might be imaginable that there'd be a last-minute impeachment, but it's utterly implausible that the removal, as a procedural matter, could be completed before the year ends.