🏅 Top traders

How is it no. He’s still PM even if he temporarily relinquished powers to acting PM. But he really didn’t because he was discharged from hospital Tuesday morning and went to go vote on some tax bill in the Knesset

@MonaSalama It just resolved as yes

@nathanwei sorry read that wrong. And I didn’t drink for NYE 😂😂😂

Even better return

https://manifold.markets/Calvin6b82/will-x-country-recognize-palestine

You can get a better return buying no here:

https://manifold.markets/suzumebatchi/which-states-will-rule-that-frozen

Does this count towards NO?

Levin to be acting PM as Netanyahu undergoes surgery to remove …

4 hours ago · While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is undergoing prostate surgery today, Justice Minister Yariv Levin will fill in temporarily as acting premier, according to Hebrew …

Also:

Will Netanyahu die during or within 1 week of his Prostate surgery? | Manifold

@uair01 Acting PM is irrelevant for this market. Netanyahu is still the PM. So no, it doesn't count.

I bought some no here just because you can get a better return on other markets. I think it's not worth holding yes, some other EOY markets are between 5% and 95% still.

Related market:

https://manifold.markets/Lemming/how-many-months-from-july-2024-unti?r=TGVtbWluZw

I am selling my investment before the value of Mana is decreased to a tenth of its current value on May 15 2024.

Gantz traveling to the US - this could be interesting.

Protestors demand Netanyahu steps down

Atlantic and guardian calling for Biden to put pressure on Israel to get rid of him:

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/12/netanyahu-israel-leadership-us-palestine/676250/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/06/biden-support-netanyahu-gaza-middle-east

Netanyahu's support for prime minister has drop by ~15% since October 7th. Projected seats for his party have dropped from ~27 to ~17.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election

As soon as the war's over he's gone.

Not clear if this made it to Netanyahu's desk, but: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html

Gantz just needs to insist on drafting the Haredim until at least one Haredi party leaves the coalition, then jump ship himself. Boom. I think that's the most likely scenario. Hard to see how Netanyahu threads the needle with the Haredi draft in this kind of scenario.

@nathanwei Tell me more? What is the Haredi draft?

@DouglasCampbell When Israel was founded, the government enacted compulsory conscription into the military for all Jews (of all genders) for 2+ years, with an exemption carved out for Orthodox Jews who study Torah as a full-time “job.” This compromise enshrined the existing balance of secular & religious interests into law, earning the backing of all Jews to successfully establish the state. Increasingly lately, secular Israelis have pushed for the exemption to end in the interest of equally distributing the burden of military service. Haredi Jews (Orthodox Jews with a more insular lifestyle) defend the exemption because they believe that G-d desires Torah study so much that He will protect Israel in its merit.

@oh Ah, yes, I knew this, but didn't know orthodox Jews were called Haredi. What are the chances Bibi drafts the Haredi right now? So far, from the outside at least, although information is scarce, it doesn't look like the IDF has had too difficult a go of it in northern Gaza.

@DouglasCampbell I guess, a related question, would a man who managed to cling to power for the better part of 20 years do something that would effectively force his own ouster?

@DouglasCampbell He won't really have much of a choice. In Israel, the executive is weaker than in America. If anything, his own party will bolt on him. He won't be able to keep the coalition together. Unlike in America, Israel has a huge tradition of people from the ruling party bolting, breaking, betraying, and so on.

@nathanwei Why would a Haredi party leave the coalition in that situation? Presumably they could just stay and Gantz wouldn't have the votes necessary to pass said legislation. Also Bibi wouldn't agree to Gantzs demand so the vote wouldn't be brought in the first place. And of course if Gantz chooses to leave the coalition still has a majority unless others also leave.

I agree Bibi won't maintain power but I don't think it'll have anything to do with Haredi draft legislation.

@CelebratedWhale Right, in that case though it would hasten defections from Likud since especially after 10/7 Likud voters won't be too happy about the Haredi draft. I was less trying to say "here's exactly XYZ what will happen" and more trying to say that Bibi has to balance 10 impossible things to stay in power.

@nathanwei curious on your views now. So far, it seems he's balanced those things to stay in power.

@DouglasCampbell That was before October 7. He also has given up on the judicial reform and the court struck down the one aspect of it that did go through. I am going to buy more no.

@nathanwei How do you feel now about those No shares you bought six months ago?

@DouglasCampbell I sold some Netanyahu shares at 60% in a different market and bought more no here at 80%. I didn't expect them to wait so long for the Rafah operation. But I think it's not a done deal at all and he might be gone by EOY. I think the market is fairly priced around now at 70%. Here I've spent 33 Mana but my expectation is 38 Mana for +5 in total. So I think I'm doing OK.