Resolves YES if by 7/1/2023, NHC reclassifies Hurricane Ian as Category 5 based on reanalysis. Otherwise NO.
(If Hurricane Ian simply strengthens to Category 5 again somewhere in the Atlantic, that does not count for this question. What does count YES is if NHC decides that Hurricane Ian was actually Cat 5 at some point where it had previously been classified Cat 4.)
From excellent comments by @marthinwurer on https://manifold.markets/jack/will-hurricane-ian-strengthen-to-ca-d11322584389:
the NHC will occasionally issue upgrades later in the season, based on data from reanalysis. They did that with hurricane Michael, which intensified to a cat 5 right before it hit. Ian was just two mph under the cat 5 line and showed a lot of signs of intensification towards the end, so it might be upgraded after the fact as well.
it appears that they publish the reanalysis studies the following spring.
I don't think they'll increase the operational classification until then, as there's more important forecasting to do because it might landfall again on the east coast once it crosses Florida and emerges back into the Atlantic.
For reference, Michael was reclassified as cat 5 on 4/19: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/04/19/hurricane-center-upgrades-michael-category-first-since-andrew/
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Ian briefly reached Cat 5 before landfall according to the NHC report published yesterday. It made landfall as Cat 4 but reached Cat 5 intensity, which had not been previously confirmed. This should resolve as YES.
It was so close and the wind gusts up to 190 at landfall while sustained winds 150. It is possible there is wind speed data that hasn't been collected yet because of the widespread power failures.
I don't know if you remember 2005 or not, but Katrina was only a Category 3 storm the first time it made landfall on the Atlantic Coast of Florida and only after crossing into the Gulf ramped up to the Category 5 monster that destroyed New Orleans. So my question is, will Ian start picking up again once it reenters the Atlantic and land a Cat5 in some city on the Eastern seaboard? New York City perhaps?
@BTE I don't think the hurricane simply strengthening later should count for this question, because it's specifically about reclassification "based on NHC reanalysis". If it simply strengthens again, that's not reanalysis. I will update the question text to clarify this.