Will a category 5 hurricane hit the USA before 2026?

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25

Ṁ16252026

47%

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@StephenStroup I get ~ 6% climatologically for a whole year (1991-2023 baseline); 3% for the remaining part of this year. Including the remaining part of 2024 and 2025 and taking them to be independent, I get a prior of 8%:

1 - (.97 * .94) ~= 0.08

Even if you fudge the numbers and double the probabilities, you get 17%:

1 - (0.94 * 0.88) ~= 0.17

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