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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/281910.shtml?text

@JG Thanks for the link! Will resolve NO later today unless there's any updates/corrections (should be unlikely).

@jack the NHC will occasionally issue upgrades later in the season, based on data from reanalysis. They did that with hurricane Michael, which intensified to a cat 5 right before it hit. Ian was just two mph under the cat 5 line and showed a lot of signs of intensification towards the end, so it might be upgraded after the fact as well.

@marthinwurer Thanks for that info! In this case, I believe it makes sense to leave the question open. I am not familiar with how NHC publishes this info, is there a reasonable timeframe I should set for how long to wait for a reanalysis before declaring it cat 4?

@jack it appears that they publish the reanalysis studies the following spring. I doubt you want to wait that long to resolve. I don't think they'll increase the operational classification until then, as there's more important forecasting to do because it might landfall again on the east coast once it crosses Florida and emerges back into the Atlantic.

@marthinwurer Thanks! In that case, I think the most reasonable interpretation of this question is to use the category reported at the time of landfall (category 4). Then I'll open a new question about whether they will reclassify it based on reanalysis. I will wait until tomorrow to resolve in case anyone has objections (I'll refund any trades made because of this ambiguity if desired)

@jack Resolving the question according to the NHC's best estimates in real time makes sense to me.

It's a tough call, but with the outer parts of the storm starting to touch land, my understanding is that the wind speed should start to slow.

@belikewater Yeah, I was thinking the same. But I saw the sudden spike on this market and was confused:

@jack that was me when I noticed it was right under the threshold and saw some signs that it was still intensifying.

@marthinwurer Yeah I think that makes sense as a bet, I was just surprised that the two markets had such a big discrepancy.