Will a category 5 hurricane form during the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
9
100Ṁ352Dec 1
61%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st - November 30th annually. The past three seasons have each seen at least one Category 5 hurricane (2022: Ian, 2023: Lee, 2024: Beryl & Milton).
Will there be a Category 5 hurricane in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Of the last 15 years:
Years with a Category 5: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024
Years without a Category 5: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2020, 2021
This gives a base rate of 7/15 or 47%. However, if I used the last 10 years, the rate would be 70%. I think the right pricing of this market is somewhere between those values.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a major hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Cat. 3+) form in the Atlantic basin before July 31, 2025?
9% chance
Will a category 5 hurricane hit the USA before 2026?
28% chance
Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. before the end of 2025?
29% chance
How many hurricanes will there be in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
6.8
How many major hurricanes will there be in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
3.59
How active will the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season be?
How many named storms will there be in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
15.8
In which states will a hurricane make landfall in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
Will any of the first 5 named hurricanes of the Atlantic Hurricane Season make landfall?
81% chance
Which names will be used for hurricanes in the 2025 Hurricane Season?