The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from June 1st - November 30th annually. The past three seasons have each seen at least one Category 5 hurricane (2022: Ian, 2023: Lee, 2024: Beryl & Milton).
Will there be a Category 5 hurricane in the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ143 | |
| 2 | Ṁ119 | |
| 3 | Ṁ50 | |
| 4 | Ṁ41 | |
| 5 | Ṁ33 |
People are also trading
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/161520.shtml
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
And a full advisory https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/138150.shtml
...CATEGORY 5 ERIN CONTINUING Of the last 15 years:
Years with a Category 5: 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, 2023, 2024
Years without a Category 5: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2020, 2021
This gives a base rate of 7/15 or 47%. However, if I used the last 10 years, the rate would be 70%. I think the right pricing of this market is somewhere between those values.