Will First Republic Bank collapse, be acquired, or receive government support before June?
23
186
430
resolved May 2
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if any of the following occur to the bank before June 2023:

- Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations.

- Acquisition: Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution.

- Break-up: Split of the bank into at least two separate entities.

- Government Support: Government-backed provision of financial assistance. This includes full or partial nationalization.

- Central Bank Support: Direct intervention from a central bank.

- International Support: Financial assistance from international institutions such as the IMF or central banks from other countries.

Only events on or after March 25 (the creation date of this question) will count.

It does not matter if these happen due to distress or not.

Resolution criteria based on: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15622/deutsche-bank-collapse-before-june-2023/.

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This will resolve YES because manifold is a retard site. However it is not a full acquisition.

@EjeEisis note that it doesn't even count as "most shares" if the shares don't exist

predicted YES

@EjeEisis Wrong. My criteria say "Acquisition of at least 50% of the voting shares by another financial institution." The shares most certainly do exist prior to the acquisition, and of course the point of an acquisition is to convert the shares into something else.

It also meets the criteria "Collapse: Bankruptcy, insolvency, or general cessation of operations." - see https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/

bought Ṁ3,000 of YES

Well, it got acquired by JP Morgan, that seems to fall under Acquisition rule for Yes. Full acquisition.

PNC Financial Services Group (PNC.N) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) were among banks set to submit final bids for First Republic Bank (FRC.N) by midday Sunday in an auction being run by U.S. regulators, sources familiar with the matter said.

Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG.N) was another bidder in the final phase of the process, according to one of the sources familiar with the matter.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp is expected to announce a deal on Sunday night before Asian markets open, with the regulator likely to say at the same time that it had seized the lender, three sources previously told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/pnc-jpm-putting-final-bids-first-republic-fdic-auction-sources-2023-04-30/

bought Ṁ20 of YES

Drafting this market, prior to opening I'm trying to figure out the best criteria for acquisition. I'm not a fan of Metaculus's because Partial Acquisition doesn't seem to fit the idea we're trying to capture - healthy banks sell divisions too.

predicted YES

Maybe I'll just remove that and only count full acquisition.

predicted YES

I removed the partial acquisition criteria. I clarified the Government Support criteria to note that it includes full or partial nationalization.