Will Destiny be killed in a video game by Jan 8?
26
43
แน€510
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Destiny is killed in a videogame between Monday, January 2, 2023 and Sunday January 8, 2023 (inclusive), Pacific time. For this market to resolve YES, I will need proof, so please post a clip or a link to the stream with a timecode of him being killed. Otherwise resolves NO.

This is an experiment based on this market to see how much of a difference the title makes (but please note, they aren't identical markets, e.g. mine does not require "violently killed" but just "killed"):

Get แน€200 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€456
2แน€199
3แน€148
4แน€130
5แน€75
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bought แน€800 of YES

https://youtu.be/l9dgV0Kg68M?t=351

Copied from the comments on the other market

predicted YES

Seems like a clear YES to me

predicted YES

The people buying NO - what's your counterargument?

bought แน€10 of NO

destiny traders are not the smartest at manifold, markets just move based on whoever's seen it recently, so I expect these to converge or not not out of confusion, but out of random people seeing it or not. if they do converge, it's probably just arbitrage (ie my buying no)

@jacksonpolack I deliberately made the questions slightly different so they can't be 100% arbitraged. E.g. mine does not require "violently killed" but just "killed" - this is also because I don't have a clear definition of what would count as violently or non-violently killed and would rather not have to adjudicate it.

predicted NO