Will China attempt to intercept Nancy Pelosi's plane?
23
11
100
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Chinese military aircraft attempt to intercept an aircraft carrying Nancy Pelosi in August 2022. Will resolve on the basis of whether an event is reported as such by multiple reliable media publications. An event described as an interception or as Chinese military aircraft closely approaching Pelosi's aircraft or escorts will count as YES.

Background: With a potential visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, China has issued threats to prevent the visit. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pelosi-taiwan-china-america-fears-escalation-beijing-washington-biden-rcna40229

“Should the U.S. side insist on making the visit, China will act strongly to resolutely respond to it and take countermeasures,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said, arguing that the speaker’s visit would send the wrong message to advocates of independence for the island. “We will do what we say.”

China typically expresses its displeasure with developments in Taiwan by deploying more ships in the region, sanctioning companies that sell the island weapons or sending warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone, which Beijing already does regularly.

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predicted NO
Pelosi has left Taiwan without incident. I intend to leave this market open until the end of August, as per the resolution criteria.
bought Ṁ2 of NO
Fyi I wrote the resolution criteria this way to minimize ambiguity about what travel might or might not be counted. It's still possible although unlikely for an incident on another leg of Pelosi's Asia tour.
The market that there's left is if they try, will they succeed.

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