What will occur during the reign of King Charles III? 🤴🇬🇧👑
50
241
Ṁ2.6k
2026
92%
Both the 2024 US & UK General Elections
92%
The Paris Olympics closing ceremony
87%
The death of Jimmy Carter
81%
2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]
76%
The release of the iPhone 16
72%
The launch of GPT-5
67%
Elon Musk has another child
61%
A Category 5 hurricane hits the US
57%
GTA 6 release
56%
Man’s return to the moon
53%
Weak AGI achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
52%
Peak Oil Demand
46%
The Enhanced Games opening ceremony
44%
Donald Trump goes to jail
40%
Will Smith attends the Oscars
39%
A "superintelligent oracle" achieved, as defined by the resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
36%
The death of Joe Biden
36%
AGI is achieved as judged by Manifold
34%
The war in Ukraine comes to an end
34%
Bitcoin reaches $100k

King Charles III is the current king of England and a bunch of other land too. What will occur while he’s reigning monarch?

Once an answer has occurred, it will Resolve YES. When Charles is no longer King, everything will Resolve NO.

Feel free to add whatever, I may ask clarifying questions. Please try to make the guesses a few months out, at least. I may N/A “tomorrow”.

Market will extend until Charles is no longer reigning monarch, through whatever means death, abdication, dissolution of the throne…etc.

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bought Ṁ5 A "superintelligent ... YES

I also don't understand why weak AGI is so far ahead of the superintelligent oracle, given that the market has a mode of 2 months on Metaculus, so I put some YES on that market.

bought Ṁ10 AGI is achieved as j... NO

I don't believe that Manifold will ever judge AGI to have been achieved, which is why I bet NO and added a more concrete criteria.

I believe that AGI has already been achieved, as Claude 3 has an IQ of more than 100 and it can complete most tasks better than I can, but every time one of these models is released, people say it's not AGI yet because of some minor flaw.

@SteveSokolowski I think if AGI were achieved, we'd have massive unemployment right now.

@chris I spent 12 hours on the phone trying to source a drug that is always out of stock over the past week.

Mixtral 8x7b, running on my 4090, could have replaced both me and the pharmacists on the other end of the line. It would have been more than capable of making API calls to databases and telling my LLM whether the prescription is in stock. My instance was more than capable of understanding how to make API calls to place outgoing calls.

One of the reasons I don't think AGI will change that much is because AI already exceeds human capabilities in customer service, and Klarna saved $40m in labor costs by replacing humans with AI. And yet, nobody else is doing that despite how clearly superior AI is. People just aren't setting up graphics cards to do this for whatever reason, even though wages just keep going thorugh the roof.

2025 [resolves on Jan 1st]

jan 1 2025, or the full year?

@Jason1e41 just Jan 1st. 2025 begins happening then

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