This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively and causes at least 1 fatality after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.
Offensively means neither detonations for testing purposes nor peaceful nuclear explosions will count towards question resolution, even if such detonations cause substantial damage.
The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.
Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.
I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/ and related questions to decide the resolution criteria.
See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.
Two closely related questions:
1,000
3.00I had a couple of other variants, but creating this one to more closely match https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/ and also for the purposes of