if any nuclear weapon is detonated offensively after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise 

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7457/-nuclear-weapons-used-by-2050/

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/

 to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive or not.

if any nuclear weapon detonation causes at least 1 fatality after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise 

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/

 and related questions to decide the resolution criteria.

https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting

 for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.