If an offensive nuclear detonation causes at least one fatality in 2022, will the Manifold prediction on the question about it (see below) average greater than 20% for at least a day in the week before the detonation?

If the linked question resolves NO, then this question resolves N/A. If the linked question resolves YES, then this question resolves YES if the average Manifold probability on the linked question averaged greater than 20% for a full 24-hour period during the 7 days prior to the detonation, and resolves NO if not.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8544/prediction-of-our-community-on-nuclear-attack/

https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting

 for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.