This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon detonation causes at least 1 fatality after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise NO.

• The fatality must be caused by the immediate effects of the detonation, so a fatality caused by things like fallout, rioting, or climate effects will not count towards a positive resolution.

• A test detonation would count towards question resolution (if it caused at least 1 fatality)

• Any of a deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonation would count towards question resolution.

I will use Metaculus decisions on https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7404/nuclear-detonation-fatality-by-2024/ and related questions to decide the resolution criteria.

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.