Resolves to the candidate who gains the most in the prediction markets for the GOP nomination, using Election Betting Odds' aggregated market probabilities at https://electionbettingodds.com/GOPPrimary2024.html, during the day after the debate.
Please note: a candidate who is not at the debate (e.g. Trump) can still win the debate by this definition!
Resolves to the candidate with the highest absolute percentage gain in the 24 hour period from 8pm ET Wednesday November 8 (the start of the debate) to 8pm ET Thursday November 9.
(This question is essentially about who the markets assess as outperforming expectations the most.)
In case there's a tie (using the most precise displayed probabilities, currently percentages with one decimal point), resolves equally to all candidates tied for the highest gain.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,370 | |
| 2 | Ṁ890 | |
| 3 | Ṁ667 | |
| 4 | Ṁ115 | |
| 5 | Ṁ89 |
People are also trading
@12 Hours since Debate Start (7:58am ET)
Trump 75.7 (-0.05)
Haley 10.6 (+0.09)
DeSantis 7.7 (+0.01)
Ramaswamy 2.3 (+0.02)
buying haley no, limits up!