Who will be Time Person of the Year 2023? [Multiple independent options]
105
1.1k
5.6k
resolved Dec 6
Resolved
YES
Taylor Swift
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
Volodymyr Zelensky
Resolved
NO
Artificial Intelligence
Resolved
NO
Joe Biden
Resolved
NO
Sam Altman
Resolved
NO
Benjamin Netanyahu
Resolved
NO
ChatGPT
Resolved
NO
Supreme Court of the United States
Resolved
NO
Xi Jinping
Resolved
NO
[Any Artificial Intelligence]
Resolved
NO
Jerome Powell
Resolved
NO
Trump Prosecutors
Resolved
NO
Hollywood Strikers
Resolved
NO
Barbie
Resolved
NO
Vladimir Putin
Resolved
NO
Strikers
Resolved
NO
King Charles III
Resolved
NO
John Roberts
Resolved
NO
Donald Trump

Each answer resolves YES if that answer is directly named as TIME's Person of the Year for 2023, otherwise NO.

Please note, each answer resolves to YES if the answer is named TIME's Person of the Year either alone or in conjunction with another person or thing, so long as it is directly named.

For example, if the Person of the Year is "Elon Musk and X", then Elon Musk resolves to YES. If, however, the Person of the Year is the "The X Team", then Elon Musk resolves to NO. As another example, if the person of the year is "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" then AI resolves YES while ChatGPT resolves NO; while if it's "AI Scientists" or "OpenAI", then AI and ChatGPT both resolve NO. If the person of the year is "Sam Altman and ChatGPT", then both of those answers resolve YES while AI resolves NO.

The special answer [Any Artificial Intelligence] resolves YES if any AI is named as Person of the Year. Both generic terms for AI, such as "Large Language Models" and "Generative AI", and specific AI systems, such as "ChatGPT" and "GPT-4", count as YES. However, "Sam Altman" or "OpenAI" would not count. "Sam Altman and ChatGPT" does count.

If Time's cover and other Time webpages have different winners for the Person of the Year, only one of them has to mention the answer as the winner for it to resolve YES.

This market can resolve after the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is announced by TIME magazine. If for any reason the 2023 TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by January 15, 2024 (11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve to NO.

In case of ambiguity, I will follow the resolution decisions of https://polymarket.com/event/2023-time-person-of-the-year (if applicable) so long as they do not directly contradict the market rules stated here.

Related to https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-be-time-person-of-the-year but there are a few differences - I created it this way because if two answers are named, they both resolve to YES here, whereas in the other market they would both resolve to 50%.

If you want to suggest new answers to add, post a comment.

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bought Ṁ50 of Jerome Powell NO

AI seems to be trading too high compared to https://manifold.markets/jack/will-ai-be-a-time-person-of-the-yea-5bf054676659. I suspect people misunderstand the resolution criteria which require that the answer is "directly named". If POTY is "ChatGPT" then the AI answer resolves NO, according to the specified rules.

There aren't very many traders on the answer, and @Joshua is the biggest YES holder, so want to check to see how you interpreted this.

If everyone thinks ChatGPT should resolve AI YES, including the AI NO holders, I can make that change.

Otherwise, I can also add an [Any artificial intelligence] answer.

bought Ṁ5 of Benjamin Netanyahu YES

Liquidity in this market is terrible. 10 on Netanyahu raises probability by 25 points.

@BTE yeah it's because that answer was added recently, and each answer has its own liquidity, like yes/no markets

Can we get an other option?

@Soli It wouldn't make sense in this market. To bet on "Other", you just bet NO on everything.

bought Ṁ1 of Benjamin Netanyahu YES

If anyone has questions about the rules, let me know and I can add more clarifying examples.

bought Ṁ0 of Elon Musk NO

Seems very reasonable and orderly, as opposed to my chaos 😅

Maybe add Roberts or SCOTUS? Those have been my long-shot favorites through all this.

bought Ṁ30 of Joe Biden NO

@Joshua Sure thing. Thanks, although I do think the chaos on your market adds a lot of fun haha

bought Ṁ50 of Xi Jinping NO

Related market on whether the general concept of AI will be Time person of the year: