This market will resolve to YES if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas on or before November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise NO.
The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last 48h and to have begun before the resolution date (if the ceasefire begins on the resolution date, for example, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 48h).
Update:
As stated above "The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources." and that will form the primary basis for determination of whether the ceasefire lasted at least 48 hours. If such sources are in consensus about whether the ceasefire lasted 48 hours then that should be simple enough; it only gets complicated if they disagree.
I think that the end of the ceasefire should be counted based on whether the involved parties think the ceasefire is still in effect. I agree that isolated incidents of violence would not count as ending the ceasefire unless the parties think it counted as ending the ceasefire. I'm going to leave determination of edge cases up to https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-30
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The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources
The resolution sources say the ceasefire is still in effect, and it's been longer than 48 hours. If anyone finds a source to the contrary, let me know, but I haven't seen one.
Linked polymarket was resolved to yes: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-30
Firstly, I'm going to copy my note pointing out the resolution criteria for more visibility.
As stated above "The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources." and that will form the primary basis for determination of whether the ceasefire lasted at least 48 hours. If such sources are in consensus about whether the ceasefire lasted 48 hours then that should be simple enough; it only gets complicated if they disagree.
Some people are claiming that a violation of a ceasefire immediately terminates the ceasefire. I'm skeptical, based on:
Media reports say that there were violations but the ceasefire is still in effect
Wikipedia says the same
As far as I know, both the parties to the ceasefire say the same
International law also seems to say that ceasefire violations do not terminate a ceasefire. See
Any serious violation of the armistice by one of the parties gives the other party the right of denouncing it, and even, in cases of urgency, of recommencing hostilities immediately.
Note "the right", this doesn't say that a ceasefire ends immediately upon a violation, rather I believe that a violation gives the other party the right to terminate the ceasefire.
Some more info: https://lieber.westpoint.edu/law-of-truce/
Like in contract law, violation of the terms of the agreement by one party gives the other party a self-help remedy outside of a lawsuit and courtroom. Per Article 40 of Hague Convention IV, “[a]ny serious violation of the armistice by one of the parties gives the other party the right of denouncing it, and even, in cases of urgency, of recommencing hostilities immediately.” Importantly, violating a ceasefire agreement’s terms is not a law of armed conflict violation. Breaching a mutually-agreed upon “neutral zone,” for example, is not by itself a breach of the law of armed conflict but merely a bad faith violation of an agreement between adversaries. For this reason, breaching a ceasefire does not provide the victim party with a legal right of “reprisal” in which it—as a last resort—may violate norms and rules of international law to deter its adversary from the same unlawful conduct. All it may do is renounce its participation in the halt of hostilities and resume its (otherwise lawful) use of force.
Moreover, a ceasefire agreement that does not explicitly limit itself to a specific duration or time period can be terminated “at will” by any party, with no need for any justification. That party may recommence hostilities without committing “perfidy,” provided that “the enemy is warned within the time agreed upon, in accordance with the terms of the armistice” (Hague IV, art. 36). This, of course, implies that a legitimate agreement must include such terms.
(Again, this legal analysis is not how the question resolves. It's just information to help interpret and predict whether the ceasefire will be considered to have ended or not by the resolution sources)
@jack
this should presumably resolve yes at midnight, which is 48 hours since the ceasefire went into effect, as both parties say that the ceasefire is ongoing?
@Panfilo Sounds like the ceasefire will end at midnight their time (5pm EST) if the hostage releases don't resume, which would be 7 hours before the 48 hour mark.
Sold my stake because, and I'm not blaming Jack here, there is no way to interpret the cesspool of Israel/Hamas public releases that will in any way satisfy the bettors here.
Hamas has said Israel has violated the truce, which many "NO" voters will claim ends the 48 hour clock, while there is no actual firing (yet).
Anyway, there is no real way of accurately assessing this, even with Jack's valiant attempt to ensure an objective criteria.
@SuperTaxGenius I would say the best interpretation is whether the release of the hostages will continue.
This is addressed by my previous comments. See also https://manifold.markets/jack/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-3#2eJS8pfHBaa1Gn7cNnCm for a more comprehensive analysis.
Current reporting says the cease fire is holding https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/24/world/israel-hamas-hostage-release-gaza-war/d157080a-0495-5e1d-8d3b-de2fd307e7bc
@Mira bought Ṁ1,500 NO from 83% to 32%
?
Is this about "Israeli troops are opening fire on people trying to head north."?
Weird that there is zero reaction in Polymarket so far.
@jack There were some rockets being fired 15 minutes after it started. Probably somebody didn't get the memo but stopped soon after. But, that means the only official ceasefire will have broken its terms within 15 minutes.
If they informally continue the ceasefire and recognize it as a simple communication mistake but don't sign a new one, there will be an unofficial ceasefire of at least 48 hours that won't count.
I think it's necessarily true that Israel and Hamas get to determine if both sides followed the ceasefire. If a few incidents happen but both side determine they don't matter, this should still resolve YES imo. (i hold an insignificant amount of no fwiw). Everything is messy and fuzzy at the boundaries.
I wrote a comment about this a few days ago, I added it to the market description now. Should have added that earlier, sorry
@Mira For evidence that violations of a ceasefire are not generally understood as immediately ending the ceasefire no matter what, see for example Wikipedia (which I went to show a non-cherry-picked example). Presumably the statements by Israel and Hamas also indicate that they treat the ceasefire as still in effect as well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire says
The 2023 Israel–Hamas ceasefire is an ongoing ceasefire
while also saying
In the opening hours of the ceasefire, Al Jazeera English reported that the IDF opened fire on Palestinians returning to Gaza City.[43][44] Reportedly two were killed.
Both sides have blamed each other for violating the cease fire agreement, shortly after it began. Israel has accused Hamas of launching rockets into Israel about 15 minutes after the start of the pause, and claimed that Israel had not retaliated. The Hamas controlled Gaza health ministry claimed that two people were killed and about thirty injured after Israeli soldiers had opened fire on Palestinians in the early morning.[42]
"Friday at the earliest" so still likely before Nov 30, but things are looking a little shaky: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/11/22/world/israel-hamas-hostage-gaza-war/after-announcing-a-truce-israel-and-hamas-are-still-working-out-key-details?smid=url-share