This question will resolve as N/A if no nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023, as per the question Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine in 2022? If such a detonation occurs, resolves YES if within one month, kinetic military action takes place between a NATO member state and Russian forces, causing at least 1 fatality. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolution details:

• Kinetic military action is defined as one involving gunfire or explosives - which does include strikes by drones, aircraft, missiles, artillery, etc. Cyberattacks would not count towards question resolution. I will use resolution criteria of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8148/russia-and-non-us-nato-clash-by-2024/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7449/deadly-usrussia-clash-before-2024/

• Determination of whether conflict was between a NATO member state and Russia and caused at least one fatality will be based on reliable media reporting. If the identity of the combatants is not known with certainty, it counts if my reading of the consensus reporting indicates at least 90% credence that it was NATO and Russia.

• Nuclear detonations here include test detonations and may be deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised detonations.

Related

See https://manifold.markets/post/nuclear-risk-forecasting for a dashboard of other nuclear risk questions along with commentary and analysis.