 if no nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023, as per the question 

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine in 2022?

if within one month, a NATO member state detonates any nuclear weapon offensively. Resolves 

Resolution details (mostly copied from Metaculus):

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2797/no-non-test-nuclear-detonations-by-2024-01-01/

 and related questions to determine whether a nuclear weapon detonation counts as offensive.

if any nuclear weapon is detonated in Ukraine after October 3, 2022 and before January 1, 2023. Otherwise 

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/