If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon? | Manifold

If NATO troops fight in the Ukraine war, will Russia use a nuclear weapon?

Plus

22

Ṁ2209

Jan 1

23%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves NA if NATO troops never enter the war.

Close date updated to 2025-01-01 6:59 pm

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Checking assumptions: If Russia nukes Ukraine, followed by NATO entering the fight, followed by Russia nuking Ukraine again, this market resolves YES?

Yes

Over what timescale is this market intended to resolve? It currently says it closes in a week, and I'm not sure if that's intentional.

Related questions

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war?

-5% 1d15% chance

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons?

Will a NATO member send troops to Ukraine before 2026?

will Russia win the war in Ukraine

Will Russia nuke Ukraine?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine by 2024?

Will any NATO nation (including France) send troops to Ukraine in 2024?

Will Russia nuke Ukraine?

Will a nuclear weapon detonate in a military conflict?

Related questions

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the Russia-Ukraine war?

Will Russia nuke Ukraine?

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear bomb in Ukraine by 2024?

Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons?

Will any NATO nation (including France) send troops to Ukraine in 2024?

Will a NATO member send troops to Ukraine before 2026?

Will Russia nuke Ukraine?

will Russia win the war in Ukraine

Will a nuclear weapon detonate in a military conflict?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules