Will Manifold set abandoned questions to resolve to MKT, by default?
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246Ṁ2611resolved Jan 3
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@MilliOnaire is working on a way to automatically resolve markets to MKT probability, after a certain period of time. I think this is quite a good thing - it means that traders can free up
- For abandoned markets, someone else can come in and provide liquidity, and bet the MKT to what they think it should be
- If they're wrong, then other traders will seek to profit out of them
- It's decentralizing the resolution criteria by using a keynesian beauty contest
- what grounds the resolution is both 1) the community opinion on the resolution and 2) the possibility of the creator coming back
My current proposal:
The auto-MKT-resolve date defaults to 7 days after "criteria date". This is changeable by the creator (but not set in the creation screen, similar to the tagging interface)
on "criteria date", creator auto-withdrawals all liquidity. But holders of YES/NO shares can continue to trade on the same market if someone else provides liquidity.
One major alternative: Markets could resolve to N/A automatically instead. @JamesGrugett likes this because it prevents the possibility of "gaming" the system - if you think a market will be abandoned, you can manipulate the price right before the auto-resolve.
I think gaming is possible, but the lost profits from traders will be worse (especially for traders who already exited via selling their shares). And what's nice is that the auto-MKT-resolution also punishes the creator financially by draining their liquidity and sending it to the other traders, rather than letting them get off scot-free in the N/A case.
Also, there are possible fixes to prevent gaming (eg - using the weighted average of the prob between the criteria date and the resolution time, or picking a random prob point in time from the last 24h, or something; I think the game theory works out okay on these)
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