This poll https://forms.gle/5yLeSZhNfs7fE5Vq6 asks participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?"
This is meant to measure the community's current beliefs. Please respond to the poll if you're interested.
This market predicts the result of the poll. The poll will run until the end of January. The market resolves to the average (mean) poll response at that time.
(Note: the poll and the market are different things! Your predictions in this market are not a response to the poll, submit your poll response in the above form.)
Notes
Poll responses must be honest. Do not attempt to manipulate the poll - if I suspect manipulation then I reserve the right to restrict the poll to reputable Manifold users or resolve N/A.
I am aware that this poll would likely be highly subject to selection bias. I am considering some ideas to mitigate this in another variant of this question; let me know if you have suggestions.
I will not bet in this market, since the poll results are only visible to me until I post them.
Related
I bought "no" supposing that the average probability of the poll would be less than the 89% the market was at.
But actually the market will only resolve YES or NO, and the threshold for that is the poll being at probability 50%. So the actual price for buying here is not "what % do you believe the poll will come out as?" but rather "what's the probability that this poll will come up greater than 50%"?
These are very different quantities.
@AdriaGarrigaAlonso I presume the market would actually resolve to the average poll probability (markets can be resolved with a fractional result, so e.g. resolving to 0.93 means you get 0.93 for your yes shares and 0.07 for your no shares)
Weird way to do it. Say the poll reaches 99% - won't people who predict "no" get virtually guaranteed profits?
Seems like more of a game theory experiment than a poll.
@StanPinsent You might be mixing up the poll and the market. The poll results are hidden until it closes, so there's no way for anyone to see that the poll has reached 99%. If the market reached 99%, then it would be profitable to predict NO if you believe the poll will be less than 99% - there's no weird game theory there, it's just predicting as normal.
@StanPinsent No, see my comment above -- the probability that the market resolves YES is not the same as the average result of the poll
I was about to start arbitraging with your two related markets and then realised that not every participant in your polls will be a perfect bayesian.
