This poll https://forms.gle/5yLeSZhNfs7fE5Vq6 asks participants: "What do you believe was the probability that SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse?"

This is meant to measure the community's current beliefs. Please respond to the poll if you're interested.

This market predicts the result of the poll. The poll will run until the end of January. The market resolves to the average (mean) poll response at that time.

(Note: the poll and the market are different things! Your predictions in this market are not a response to the poll, submit your poll response in the above form.)

Notes

• Poll responses must be honest. Do not attempt to manipulate the poll - if I suspect manipulation then I reserve the right to restrict the poll to reputable Manifold users or resolve N/A.

• I am aware that this poll would likely be highly subject to selection bias. I am considering some ideas to mitigate this in another variant of this question; let me know if you have suggestions.

• I will not bet in this market, since the poll results are only visible to me until I post them.

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